Fall

Waiting and Wondering/On Average: November/Fall 2023 Recaps

December 6, 2023 - 7:10pm -- Dave Robinson

Steam rising from the cooling tower at the Hope Creek Nuclear Generating Station in Lower Alloways Creek Township (Salem County) on the afternoon of November 11th.

The dry first three weeks of November kept everyone waiting and wondering if a record dry month might be at hand along with increasing drought concerns. To the rescue came two rain events on the 21st–22nd and 26th to bring the monthly average precipitation to a rather respectable total. The statewide average of 2.68” was 0.68” below normal, ranking 52nd driest of the past 129 Novembers. Unlike recent months, it was the coastal northern counties that were driest, while the central north was wettest. The northern division (Hunterdon-Somerset-Union counties northward) averaged 2.92” (-0.55”, 50th driest), the southern division (Mercer-Middlesex-Monmouth counties southward, except along the coast) 2.56” (-0.73”, 53rd driest), and the coastal division (roughly the Garden State Parkway to the coast) 2.24” (-1.10”, 42nd driest).

Snowflakes were seen in a few northern locations on the 1st, a dusting occurred at higher elevations at the start of the 21st–22nd rain event, and flurries and a few measurable dustings from squalls occurred on the 28th. Despite the scattered dustings, regionally and statewide records show an absence of accumulation. This is 0.5” below normal but has been seen in 52 of the previous 128 Novembers.

Tranquility: October 2023 Recap

November 6, 2023 - 9:14pm -- Dave Robinson

Fall colors surrounding Lake Wapalanne at the NJ School of Conservation on October 25th. The Sandyston (Sussex County) NJWxNet station sits nearby on school grounds. (Photo courtesy of Nick Stefano).

Foggy mornings, clear days, four modest rain events, and most locations yet registering a fall freeze. This all speaks to a rather quiet weather October, thus the title of this report. The rather dry conditions resulted in statewide monthly precipitation averaging just 2.16”. This was 2.03” below normal and ranked as the 32nd driest October since records commenced in 1895. Under an inch fell in the southwest, while only the northeast and northern coast saw totals close to or above normal. The northern climate division averaged 3.06” (-1.39”, 56th driest), southern division 1.57” (-2.46”, 17th driest), and coastal division 2.00” (-2.09”, 30th driest).

As a result of above-normal temperatures to begin and end the month, the statewide average temperature of 58.2° was 2.8° above normal, ranking 9th warmest (tied with 2019). Every other October since 2017 sits in the top 10. The northern division averaged 56.4° (+3.1°, 9th warmest), southern 59.2° (+2.7°, 12th warmest), and coastal 60.2° (+2.6°, 11th warmest).

Turn! Turn! Turn!: September 2023 Recap

October 9, 2023 - 2:32pm -- Dave Robinson

Flooding of Wesley Lake on the border of Asbury Park and Ocean Grove (Monmouth County) on September 29th. Submerged cars are located on aptly named Lake Avenue. (Photo courtesy of S. Isk).

Fall and spring months are considered to be seasonal transition ones. At times, the change of season takes place rather slowly. Then there are months like this past September when the turn is quite abrupt. September 2023 began with the hottest day and week of 2023. Several rainy periods, some with severe storms, ensued as temperatures began to decline and Hurricane Lee, while remaining far offshore, brought rough surf and some clouds to NJ. Soon after came chilly conditions with the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia twice bringing heavy rain into portions of the state and over a week of minor to occasional moderate coastal flooding at times of high tide.

Statewide, the average temperature of 68.1° was 1.2° above the 1991–2020 normal. This ranked as the 16th warmest September since records commenced in 1895. The average high temperature was 77.4°, which 0.2° above normal and ranks 35th warmest. The average low temperature of 58.8° was 2.2° above normal, ranking 8th warmest. The northern climate division averaged 65.8° above (+0.9°, 21st warmest), southern +69.5° (+1.4°, 14th warmest), and coastal 69.9° above (+1.2°, 14th warmest).

September rainfall was excessive, with the southwest and northwest the driest regions of the state yet averaging above the statewide 30-year normal. The wettest area was along the northern coast with rainfall as much as 3 to 4 times above the climatological mean. Statewide, September precipitation averaged 7.55”, which is 3.39” above normal and ranks as the 9th wettest. The northern division averaged 7.73” (+3.27”, 11th wettest), southern 7.38” (+3.39”, 11th wettest), and coastal 8.01” (+4.12”, 3rd wettest).

A Tale of Two Novembers, and Leaning Warmer and Wetter Than Normal: November and Fall 2022 Recap

December 12, 2022 - 4:31pm -- Dave Robinson

An autumnal view along the Lamington River in Hacklebarney State Park on the border of Chester Twp. and Washington Twp. (Morris County). Photo by Dave Robinson.

Last month’s report spoke of how “classic” the weather was during October. November’s weather could be classified as being anything but such. The month began with perhaps the warmest first ten days of November on record in the Garden State, an interval that ranked up there with early November 2020. Then came winter-like temperatures for about ten days leading up to Thanksgiving before the month ended on a closer-to-normal note. There were only two mid-month events that brought more than an inch of rain to parts of the state, one associated with the remnants of a late-season hurricane that struck Florida. Portions of central and northern NJ saw the first snowflakes of the season during the cold spell, though aside from some minor accumulations at higher elevations, mostly traces were observed.

With the ups and downs of temperature, November came out averaging 47.5° for the state as a whole. This is 2.4° above the 1991–2020 normal and ties as the 15th mildest eleventh month on record. Ten of the twenty mildest Novembers since 1895 have occurred since 2001. The statewide average high temperature of 58.1° was 3.4° above normal, ranking 10th mildest. The average low of 36.9° was 1.4° above normal, ranking 20th mildest. North Jersey averaged 45.2° (+2.1, 15th mildest), south Jersey 48.7° (+2.4°, 17th mildest), and the Jersey coast 50.0° (+2.7°, 13th mildest).

Statewide precipitation averaged 3.08”, which is 0.28” below normal and ranks as the 63rd driest (66th wettest) on record. The north averaged 2.98” (-0.28”, 63rd driest), south 3.14” (-0.15”, 71st driest), and coast 3.14” (-0.20”, 68th driest). As the monthly map shows, central and northern coastal areas were wettest, while the driest areas were scattered in the far south, central, and north. It must be noted that the rain falling during the second half of the 30th is not included in the monthly totals for the state, regions, or individual stations presented later in the report. By convention, the reporting day for most National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative and Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) stations used in this report ends at morning observation time on the last day of the month. Totals from the afternoon of the 30th, to be included in December totals, ranged as high as about an inch, though mainly 0.25”–1.00”.

True Fall Colors: October 2022 Recap

November 7, 2022 - 6:00pm -- Dave Robinson

Brilliant fall foliage looking up towards High Point Monument (Sussex County) on October 22nd. Photo courtesy of Chris Stachelski.

There are years when many say that New Jersey didn’t experience “classic” fall weather. This October is not one of those years, as the month included rain, wind, and coastal flooding from the persistent remnants of a hurricane, many locations received their first frost and freezing temperatures to end the growing season, and there were days with a cloud-free deep-blue sky. October certainly showed its true fall colors.

October temperatures averaged 54.1° across NJ. This is 1.3° below the 1991–2020 normal and was the coolest October since 2009. It was the 57th coolest (tied with 4 other years) of the 128 since 1895. The average high was 64.5° which is 1.3° below normal and is the 48th coolest (tied with 3 years). The average low of 43.6° is 1.3° below normal and ranks 65th coolest (tied with 4 years). Northern NJ averaged 52.1° (-1.2°, 59th coolest [tied with 2 years]), southern 55.1° (-1.4°, 56th coolest [tied with 3 years]), and coastal 56.6° (-1.0°, 70th coolest [tied with 1 year]).

Rainfall was abundant, averaging 6.45” statewide. This is 2.26” above normal and ranks 10th wettest on record. It was the wettest since the record October 2005. Ten different decades are found in the top 15 years. The north averaged 5.88” (+1.43”, 21st wettest), south 6.75” (+2.72”, 6th wettest), and coast 7.53” (+3.44”, 3rd wettest). Coastal Monmouth, Ocean, and Atlantic counties were wettest, coming in at two to three times normal totals. While coming in close to normal, the driest areas were in the north central, far southern, and southwest regions.

Flipping the Seasonal Switch: September 2022 Recap

October 6, 2022 - 11:47am -- Dave Robinson

Low-lying radiation fog crossing the road in Sparta on the morning of September 24th.

Following a hot and dry summer, the questions of the day in September were when the temperature would begin to cool and would more abundant rainfall arrive. Signs of a rainfall resurgence were mixed, with drought conditions diminishing in spots but worsening in others. The temperature answer came in almost a flash on the 22nd (the first day of astronomical fall!) when a powerful cold front sent the thermometer quickly downward with an early-fall-like pattern arriving and remaining through month’s end.

September temperatures averaged 67.8° across NJ. This is 0.9° above the 1991–2020 normal and ties as the 22nd mildest September since statewide records commenced in 1895. The average high temperature was 78.2°, which is 1.0° above normal and tied for 23rd warmest. The average low was 57.3°, 0.7° above normal and ranking 23rd warmest. North Jersey came in at 65.7° (+0.8°, tied for 23rd warmest), the south 69.0° (+0.9°, tied for 21st warmest), and the coast 69.7° (+1.0°, 15th warmest).

NJ precipitation averaged 3.16” for September, which is 1.00” below normal and ranks as the 57th driest of the last 128 years. The north was wettest at 3.64”. This is 0.82” below normal, though ranks as just the 67th driest. The south came in with 2.86” (-1.13”, 51st driest) and the coast 2.98” (-0.91”, 57th driest).

It’s Been A While: November 2021; A Common Theme: Fall 2021 Recap

December 7, 2021 - 4:32pm -- Dave Robinson

The season’s first measurable snow at High Point on November 15th. Photo courtesy of N. Stefano.

November was the first month since May 2020 with both averages of precipitation and temperature below 1991–2020 normals. The last drier-than-normal month was this past June while the last cooler-than-normal month was this past May. However, it’s been a while, 19 months, since the two anomalies teamed up. And dry it was, with the statewide average of 1.06” running 2.29” below normal. This ranks as the 7th driest November since records commenced in 1895. Only two other Novembers since 1936 fall in the top 10.

The statewide average November temperature of 43.9° was 1.2° below the 1991–2020 normal and ranked as the 73rd coolest of the past 127 years. This was 17.2° cooler than the mild average of this past October. The normal difference between the months is 10.2°. The average maximum was 54.5° (-0.2°, 84th coolest) and the average minimum was 33.2° (-2.3°, 47th coolest). The north averaged 41.9° (-1.2°, 74th coolest), the south 44.9° (-1.4°, 68th coolest), and the coast 46.0° (-1.3°, 70th coolest). The first Rutgers NJWxNet or NWS Cooperative station to reach the freezing point this season was Pequest (Warren County), late on the 2nd. This was the latest first freeze in NJ since at least 1900 (based on Coop records). The last location to reach freezing was West Cape May (Cape May) on the 28th, on the late side but not unusually so.

A Slow Crawl into Fall: October 2021 Recap

November 8, 2021 - 5:43pm -- Dave Robinson

Colorful foliage surrounding Lake Hopatcong (Sussex County) on October 31st, bringing a tranquil close to a turbulent end of October. Photo courtesy of Kelly Wallis.

October was the second mildest on record in the Garden State since records commenced in 1895. This follows on the heels of the 11th warmest September, leaving most residents wondering when cool weather would arrive and leaves would turn and fall. For the first time since at least 1900, not a single weather observing station in New Jersey recorded a freezing low temperature on any day in either September or, as is climatologically most common, October. All of this resulted in a leaf season that was delayed by one to two weeks.

The statewide average October temperature of 61.1° was 5.7° above the 1991–2020 normal, a mark only surpassed in 2007. The average daily maximum of 70.1° (+4.3°) ranked 5th mildest (tied with 1920), and the average minimum of 52.0° (+7.1°) tied with 2007 as the mildest. These temperatures are close to what Norfolk, Virginia, normally experiences in October. In fact, despite the mean temperature normally declining 11.5° from September to October, this year’s mean was warmer than four previous Septembers since 1895 and the minimum was milder than 14 earlier Septembers. The state’s three climate divisions all ranked second mildest, with the north at 59.0° (+5.7°), south 62.3° (+5.8°), and coastal 63.2° (+5.6°).

Unprecedented: September 2021 Recap

October 11, 2021 - 4:38pm -- Dave Robinson

A flooded TD Bank Ballpark in Bridgewater (Somerset County) on September 2nd following the staggering rainfall caused by the remnants of Ida. Photo by Thomas P. Costello and Tariq Zehawi/USA Today Network.

Post-tropical storm Ida. The title of this month’s report speaks to this momentous weather extreme that will forever be the defining event of this month and likely the entire year. The storm delivered the most powerful tornado to strike the Garden State since 1990, demolishing multiple homes in Gloucester County. Rainfall exceeding 3.00” per hour led to the most widespread flash flood event on record for the state, resulting in the tragic deaths of 30 individuals in central and northeastern locales. A separate report on Ida has been prepared and may be accessed in the "News" menu.

There were 29 other days of weather this month that fortunately were not as dramatic as Ida on the 1st. All told, monthly precipitation averaged 6.20” across NJ. This was 2.04” above the 1991–2020 normal and ranks as the 15th wettest September since 1895. The north, where the bulk of Ida’s rain fell, averaged 8.92”, which was 4.46” above normal and ranks 7th wettest. The south averaged 4.61”, which was 0.62” above normal and ties as the 31st wettest. Along the coast, only 3.81” fell, some 0.08” below normal and ranking 44th wettest.

Up and Down But in the End Quite Average: September 2020 Recap

October 6, 2020 - 1:08pm -- Dave Robinson

Smokey sunset on September 15th

September 2020 was a month of widely-varying temperatures, several episodes of heavy precipitation, and an extended dry spell. Put it all together and conditions averaged quite close to normal. The statewide monthly average temperature of 66.8° was 1.0° above the 1981–2010 mean. While it was the seventh month of 2020 to average above normal, it was the first of these not to rank in the top 10 for warmth. Rather, it ranked 33rd warmest of the past 126 Septembers. Divisional departures from normal ranged from +0.7° in the north to +1.5° along the coast. The statewide average maximum temperature was 76.6°, which is 0.3° above normal and ranks 47th warmest. The average minimum of 56.9° was 1.6° on the warm side and ranked 24th mildest. High temperatures were likely reduced by several degrees during a mid-month period when a veil of smoke from western US forest fires blanketed the sky at an altitude of about 15,000 feet when skies otherwise would have been blue, especially on the 15th–16th. It is uncertain if this kept minimum temperatures somewhat warmer than they would otherwise have been. A cold front moved through from the northwest on the 18th, clearing the skies and sending temperatures plummeting. What followed was a four-day spell of temperatures that were well below average, including four nights with below-freezing temperatures at three to four Rutgers NJ Weather Network sites. While freezes resulting from cold air draining into valleys in some northern locations are not unprecedented before the end of astronomical summer, it is highly unusual for the cold to persist over four consecutive nights.

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